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Great, kid. Don’t get cocky.

January 18, 2010

Scott Brown is somewhere between 4 and 11 points ahead in Massachusetts, according to Charles Franklin of Pollster.com:

…no matter how you slice the data, the only reasonable conclusion is that Scott Brown has moved from well behind to a lead somewhere between 4 and 11 points.

…Perhaps you only trust non-partisan polls. Then the Brown lead is 6.8 points.

Maybe you are a Dem, who doesn’t trust the Republican pollsters. Then Brown leads by 6.5 points.

Or you are a Dem who doesn’t trust the non-partisan pollsters either and who does believe in the leaks from the Coakley campaign. Then Brown’s lead is 3.8 points.

Or you are a Rep who trusts GOP and nonpartisan polls only. Then Brown leads by 11.3.

Polls suck. Still. Wow.

The obligatory caveat:
this guy says Pollster puts too much emphasis on the last week’s polls, instead of including older ones, He says there’s evidence to show that broader polls, timeline-wise, are more accurate.

Hey, okay by me. Still. Wow.

I won’t be surprised if Brown loses, of course. It is Massachusetts, after all.

But, boy, if he wins…I’m really looking forward to the brouhaha over swearing him in and seating him. That will be fun.

Via Memeorandum.


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