Swing states swinging away from Obama, especially the really important ones.

Via Althouse: sure, those national polls on Obama’s popularity (or, more to the point, lack thereof) are great, but what are Obama’s approval ratings in individual swing states? From a re-election point of view, that’s way more important.

The Atlantic’s Chris Good:

President Obama’s national approval numbers sit at 44% today, which isn’t as dreadful as one might think, given the quantity of recent speculation about how his sagging popularity may hurt Democratic candidates this fall.

But the real story isn’t the national number, it’s Obama’s approval and disapproval in key swing states where competitive elections are taking place.

Good lists 18 states, 7 of which still report Obama in positive territory. The most interesting part for me, though was:

• Ohio: 45% approve / 54% disapprove

• Florida: 44% approve / 51% disapprove

• Pennsylvania: 39% approve / 57% disapprove

The Big Three swing states. Wasn’t the conventional wisdom not too long ago that you can’t win the White House without at least two of those?

Caveat: I’ve no idea how much this means. Maybe a lot. Maybe nothing. My general rule of thumb is: polls suck, but you shouldn’t ignore them.

On the other hand: Obama won all three of those states in 2008:

And if all three had gone for McCain instead, Obama still would have won the election. So. There. Maybe it’s more important to note that Obama’s rating is 49% to 46% in Illinois.