And for his next trick, he’ll predict the outcome of the 2016 election…tomorrow.
In his defense, Prof. Allan Lichtman’s prediction record is excellent. And yet, I’m skeptical.
Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.
“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.
Lichtman has developed a list of “thirteen keys,” of which the incumbent needs at least six. If the incumbent gets six or more, then the incumbent wins.
As of today, he’s giving President Obama nine.
“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”
But here’s the thing: of the thirteen, Lichtman calls one – “short term economy” – “undecided.” Which it should be. At least three others – no same-party challenge; no third-party challenge; challenger charisma – should also be undecided, but Lichtman is giving those to Obama.
Just a little prematurely, I’d say.
And then there’s “scandal.”
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win.
Lichtman apparently hasn’t heard of “Fast and Furious,” and no wonder: I guess the mainstream media has to pound on a “scandal” before it actually becomes one. Even so, this also seems premature.
The bottom line is: with any “one or zero” switch like Lichtman’s keys, everything rests on your interpretations. Lichtman’s “Policy Change,” for example:
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama.
Well and good, except: neither ObamaCare nor the “stimulus” have made any noticeable changes in Americans’ daily lives. ObamaCare doesn’t go into effect until 2014. If the “stimulus” stimulated anything, nobody can tell.
Plus, as Allahpundit points out, those policy changes are highly unpopular. The incumbent gets credit for a major policy change everybody hates?
Oh, and one more question: does Lichtman always make his predictions this early?
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So, we’re talking the last seven elections, right? Five of those – Reagan in ’84, Bush (I) in ’88, Clinton in ’92 and ’96, and Obama in 2008 – were not difficult picks. In fact, the only elections that were shrewd (lucky?) calls were W’s two victories. Color me unimpressed.