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See, this is why people are losing respect for “experts.”

November 20, 2012

But first, the setup:

During the third quarter of 2012, the average American sent 678 texts per month. That’s a big number…

Yeah, it is. Or, it is until you do the math. That’s, what, 22 texts per day? The average teenager/college student can blow through that over the lunch hour while eating an arm-sized burrito without missing any of the surrounding conversation.

…but it’s actually the first time America’s texting habit has declined, down from a peak of 696 texts per month over the summer.

Huh. Maybe the teenagers were all tired from setting that new record the previous quarter.

And now:

Experts say the decrease is likely a sign of a permanent shift away from SMS messaging carried over the same network we use to make phone calls.

“Likely…a permanent shift.” Based on a single data point? Could somebody tell me who these “experts” are, please, so we all know not to ever listen to them again? Somebody get Nate Silver on the phone and see what he thinks about basing a conclusion on a single data point.

And please note: I’m not saying that they’re wrong. I’m saying that, if you’re an “expert,” you won’t base such a confident conclusion on a single data point.


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